Nigeria May Face Rice, Tomato Shortages Within Three Months — OTACCWA

Nigeria could face shortages of rice, tomatoes and other essential food staples within the next three months, with the development potentially worsening food inflation and placing additional pressure on households already struggling with rising living costs, the Organisation for Technology Advancement of Cold Chain in West Africa (OTACCWA) has warned.

The President of OTACCWA and Nigeria Country Director of the World Agriculture Forum, Alexander Isong, raised the alarm in an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) in Lagos on Sunday.

Isong attributed the projected shortages to declining agricultural production, insecurity in major farming communities, reduced cultivated land, high transportation and energy costs, supply chain disruptions and inadequate storage infrastructure.

He identified rice as one of the commodities facing significant supply pressure, citing projections of a six per cent decline in production to about 8.3 million tonnes.

According to him, the area planted to rice is also projected to fall by seven per cent to approximately 4.2 million hectares, while he cited United States Department of Agriculture data indicating a five per cent year-on-year decline.

“Rice is the big one. Production is projected to drop six per cent to 8.3 million tonnes. The area planted is down seven per cent to 4.2 million hectares. The United States Department of Agriculture confirms a five per cent decrease year-on-year. Tomatoes are another headache,” Isong said.

He warned that lower production and reduced cultivation could significantly affect food availability in major markets across the country.

The OTACCWA president said the tomato shortage could persist until the late harvest season expected in October, while maize, sorghum and millet could also experience supply constraints following reduced planting recorded in 2025.

He said onions and peppers were already facing supply limitations in some major producing areas, resulting in sharp price increases.

Beyond production challenges, Isong identified rising logistics costs as a major threat to food affordability, saying the cost of transporting agricultural produce from northern farming communities to major urban markets had increased substantially.

“Moving a tonne of grain from Kano to Lagos now costs ₦70,000. It used to be ₦45,000. On some routes, transport fares have doubled or even tripled. Energy is another killer,” he said.

He also warned that Nigeria would remain heavily dependent on wheat imports, with about 7.2 million tonnes expected to be imported, further exposing the country to external supply and price pressures.

According to him, insecurity remains one of the biggest threats to Nigeria's agricultural output, with thousands of farmers displaced from farming communities in northern Nigeria.

“Insecurity in major food-producing areas must be addressed. Farmers cannot produce enough food if they are unable to access their farms safely,” he said.

“Strengthening security in key agricultural belts, particularly in Northern Nigeria, is essential to restoring production and stabilising food supplies.”

Isong's warning comes despite stronger growth recorded in the agricultural sector in the first quarter of 2026. He argued that increased agricultural GDP had yet to translate into improved food availability because production gains were being eroded by insecurity, reduced planting and significant post-harvest losses.

“Production gains are being offset by post-harvest losses, reduced planting and insecurity in producing communities,” he said.

“The result is that consumers may continue to experience supply shortages and renewed price increases for key staples.”

He said Nigeria could avert a worsening food supply crisis if federal and state governments, private investors and development partners adopted a coordinated approach to strengthening agricultural production and distribution.

A major priority, he said, should be reducing post-harvest losses, which he estimated at between 30 and 50 per cent for perishable agricultural produce.

Isong urged the government to accelerate the distribution of improved seeds, expand fertiliser access, strengthen irrigation support and provide affordable credit ahead of the 2026/2027 planting season.

He also called for increased rice cultivation during the next production cycle to offset the projected decline in output.

On security, he urged authorities to intensify efforts to protect farming communities and ensure that farmers can safely access their fields, particularly in the country's major agricultural belts.

He further advocated urgent investment in rural roads, rail freight and more efficient logistics systems to reduce the cost of transporting food from farms to urban centres.

According to him, state governments should also establish aggregation centres, cold rooms, processing facilities and produce markets closer to farming communities to minimise waste and improve supply efficiency.

Isong urged private investors to expand cold-chain infrastructure, food processing and contract farming, while calling for affordable financing to support investment in the sector.

He also recommended stronger collaboration among government agencies, commodity associations, farmer cooperatives, logistics companies and development partners to monitor food availability and respond quickly to emerging supply gaps.

“Nigeria produces enough food in many sectors, but too much of it is lost before it reaches consumers,” he said.

“If we reduce post-harvest losses, improve logistics, secure farming communities and support farmers, we can reduce shortages and stabilise food prices.”

The warning highlights the growing pressure on Nigeria's food system, where insecurity, rising production costs, weak storage infrastructure and expensive transportation continue to threaten the movement of agricultural produce from farms to consumers.

With the next major harvest cycle still months away, Isong said immediate and coordinated interventions would be necessary to prevent shortages of rice, tomatoes, peppers, onions and other staples from worsening food inflation and deepening the hardship faced by Nigerian households.